Research-Write

VentureBeat: Twitter traffic up 9% after Google real-time search launch

I predicted that Twitter would get a bump in traffic when Google launched real-time search. It did. And now there's Google Buzz, so Google can add it's own traffic to the real-time search stream, thus keeping more visitors on-site.

Social Networking by the Numbers: Facebook is eating up MySpace, 2nd tier networks led by Tagged

Social Networking has come a long way in 5 years

Back when I first started writing about social networking in 2005, many people had a hard time believing how big MySpace had become. A few of my peers had joined Friendster in 2003 and 2004, but it hadn't changed our lives. MySpace was bigger, but what was with all the cheesy music and glitter graphics? We didn't get it. As educated, upper middle class professionals, we stuck with email, our cell phones, and perhaps joined LinkedIn and tried blogging. The News Corp.acquisition of MySpace for $580 million in July 2005 surprised us. What appeared to be a combination of a trailer park and a high school parking lot on the web was now serious business.

Throughout 2005 and 2006, I worked at Hitwise and chronicled the rise of these "consumer generated media" websites, publishing blog posts and reports on how MySpace, Wikipedia, YouTube and Flickr were changing the web. These trends were summarized in "Year in Review" articles for 2005 and 2006 that I wrote for iMediaConnection. It was not until Facebook, that exclusive social network only for students, opened up in the fall of 2006 that we educated 30- and 40-somethings could truly understand what was so addicting for so many young people. We abandoned all attempts to try to like MySpace, and hurriedly started accumulating friends, connecting with ex-friends, throwing sheep, and poking people. By 2009, our parents joined, our long lost cousins joined, and we had to debate how to handle at least one friend request from someone who was mean to us in high school.

Indeed, Facebook has grown to become one of the most visited websites in the world, with over 400 million users to date. But Facebook is not for everyone: Friendster is now popular in Asia, and Orkut is big in Brazil. Vkontakte.ru is big in Russia. And MySpace is still a top 10 website in the US. On top of that there are dozens of other purely social networks with vibrant US communities, such as MyYearbook and Tagged. There are also many vertically oriented communities that gather users around a specific topic, such as Flixster for movies or Goodreads for books.

Recently I decided to take a look at what's been happening with the purely social networks (not the vertically oriented networks) to get an idea of just how dominant Facebook is, and if there are any other networks out there that still matter. From an advertiser's perspective, Facebook and MySpace have the biggest reach, but secondary social networks have the potential to engage more deeply with their users, since users of second tier brands tend to exhibit unprecedented loyalty -- the "Cult of Mac" is a prime example in this in a still largely PC world.

Here's a look at the data. If you'd like some bullet points or charts to grab, go to my VentureBeat post.

Social Networking By The Numbers, December 2009

View more presentations from LeeAnn Prescott.

Unique Visitors (slide 3)

Examination of US data from comScore shows that indeed, Facebook does lead the social networking category - by a long shot. ComScore reported 112 million unique US visitors for Facebook in December 2009, and 57 million for MySpace. With an estimated active US Internet population of 205 million, that means that 54% of all Internet users visited Facebook in December, and 27% visited MySpace. Bebo was the third largest social network in December, with a unique visitor count of 5.9 million.

Looking at monthly uniques gives us a good idea of how big a website is, but examining the average number of daily uniques gives a picture of how engaged users are with those sites. ComScore data showed that Facebook had an average 37.7 million unique visitors per day, while MySpace had 11.7 million. Facebook had less than twice the unique monthly visits as MySpace in December, but more than three times the daily visits, which means people are visiting Facebook more frequently than MySpace. Looking at visits per visitor (slide 4) puts this into perspective - the average MySpace visitor came to the site 14 times in December, when the average Facebook visitor came 27 times - nearly every day.

Rankings for the second tier sites changed somewhat when comparing monthly and daily visitor counts. Tagged, for instance, ranked #4 with 5.7 million monthly uniques in December, but rose to #3 with 1 million daily uniques. Similarly MyYearbook, which ranked #6 in monthly uniques was ranked #4 in daily uniques. The visits per visitor metric for these sites show that the average Tagged user came to the site 12 times in December and MyYearbook users came 10 times in the month. Bebo, which has a high monthly visitor ranking was low on the daily visitor count, as the average user only came to the site 4 times in December.

Time Spent (slide 4)

According to comScore, the average web visit lasts 27 minutes. Internet users are spending about 1/3 of their web time engaged with a social networking site - the average for the social networking sites in this study was between 5 and 12 minutes, with visits to Facebook right in the middle at 9 minutes.  The sites with the longest visit times were BlackPlanet (12.6 minutes), MyYearbook (11.5 minutes) and Tagged (11.3 minutes). MySpace visits lasted an average of 8.3 minutes. Clearly some sites have the ability to suck their users in more than others, and BlackPlanet and Tagged do a good job of that. Orkut and Friendster don't, possibly because fewer users means fewer people to interact with in any given user's network. 

Growth of Social Networking (slide 6)

Experian Hitwise data on US market share of visits presents a stunning picture of just how important social networking, particularly Facebook, has become in the course of the past year. In December 2008, 5.8% of all US Internet visits were to a custom category of the top 10 social networking sites. By December 2009, that number had increased by 63% to 9.4%. That's nearly one in ten Internet visits ending up at a social network.

When looking at trends in page views, the growth becomes even more compelling - social networking's share of page increased by 83% from December 2008 to December 2009. In December 2009 1 in 4 (25.4%) of page views on the Internet were at one of the top social networks. The much larger share of page views versus visits shows how incredibly engaged users are with social networks, viewing almost five times more pages than on the average website. Anyone who's wasted time looking at pictures on Facebook of people you barely know or haven't seen since high school can understand why the share of page views is so much higher than the share of visits.

Market Share Shifts (slide 7)

The growing dominance of Facebook and the decline of MySpace becomes readily apparent when looking at market share of visits to a closed category of the top 10 social networks. In December 2009, visits to Facebook accounted for 67.8% of visits to this custom category, compared to MySpace's 28.1%. These numbers virtually flip-flopped over the course of just a year - in December 2008, Facebook had 28.6% of visits and MySpace had 64.2%.

With Facebook and MySpace accounting for 96% of total social networking visits in December 2009, is there room left for other sites? Tagged, with 2.1% share in December 2009, was the only site that had more than 2% share. The other 7 sites, while accounting for millions of users, as we saw in the comScore data, together added up to less 2% share.

Market Share Growth and Decline (slide 8)

Overall change in market share of US Internet visits demonstrates that Facebook is truly driving the category growth shown in slide 6. Its overall share of US visits grew by 286% between December 2008 and 2009. The only other site showing overall growth in market share from December 2008 to December 2009 was Tagged, which increased its share of visits by 35%.

Summary

The data doesn't deny that Facebook has come to dominate social networking in the US, and overtook MySpace in 2009. But MySpace's 57 million US unique users are nothing to sneeze at - it's still a top web property with users who are highly engaged. The second tier networks, such as Tagged, Hi5, MyYearbook and Bebo, still receive an impressive 3-6 million uniques per month, and users spend a fair amount of time on those sites. BlackPlanet users spent 3.6 minutes longer interacting with the site than the average Facebook visitor. MyYearbook and Tagged users were on these sites more than 3 minutes longer than the average MySpace visitor. There is definitely addictive behavior occuring on these other sites.

What will enable the second tier networks to stay fresh is features that aren't available on Facebook. Some of these sites make it easier to meet people outside of their own network. They offer different types of social games that can be equally addicting as Facebook's Farmville. And they are beginning to integrate with Facebook - keep an eye out for this later in the year. Facebook Connect is a great way for smaller social networks to extend their reach and draw in new users. The vertical networks have no shame about doing this - Goodreads is integrated with Facebook and Flixster is integrated with MySpace.

There's no denying that Facebook is winning the game thus far - but that doesn't mean another site can't jump in and take over. MySpace's decline is living proof that a major shift can occur in the course of 2 years. But for now, all eyes are on Facebook, while over a quarter of the Internet population is still interacting with MySpace on almost a daily basis, and millions of other users are addicted to sites like MyYearbook, Tagged, and Hi5.

VentureBeat: NYTimes.com metering plan, mobile app revenue

Here are my two posts from VentureBeat this week:

VentureBeat: Nexus One beat iPhone in search volume during launch week — will the hype last?

Today's VentureBeat post - Experian Hitwise data showed the volume of searches for "nexus one" was more than double "iphone" last week, but daily Google Trends data showed a fast decline for after launch day. What do you think it means for Google?

VentureBeat: Millions of 3-D displays on the way - but what will we watch on them?

You might be surprised to know that 158 3D movies were released in the 1950s, compared to only 45 in the 2000's. It puts all the hype around getting a 3D TV in a different light.

VentureBeat: Online holiday spending for ‘09 almost $30 billion

I covered the release of ComScore 2009 holiday shopping data, which showed a 4% increase in holiday spending over 2008. I found it interesting that the heaviest spending day was December 15, and that spending on jewelry and watches was up 20% over last year. 

For the article, I converted ComScore's table of data into a bar chart. Do you think it helps make sense of the data?

VentureBeat: Android and iPhone users are the most active mobile shoppers

I'm posting on a regular basis now to VentureBeat, and will repost on this blog.

Here's the link.

It seems to me that iPhone owners and Android owners are cut from the same cloth - they want the full mobile web experience - while Blackberry, Windows and Palm users mainly want email and some basic web features like news and social networking. The Comscore report "Android: Crashing the Smartphone Party" goes into this more deeply.

VentureBeat: Will Google's real-time search help Twitter?

Here's my latest post on VentureBeat:

Google is beginning to roll out real-time search results, which will include Twitter updates, along with updates from Friendfeed, blogs, and other social media sites. This could mean Twitter’s floundering traffic over the past few months is in for a rebound. Why?

Read on...

What marketers can learn from Aol's new content strategy

On November 30, AOL announced its new content generation strategy, "betting it can reinvent itself with a numbers-driven approach to developing content, based on what Web-search and other data tell it is most likely to attract audiences and sponsors," according to Emily Steel in the Wall Street Journal.  This strategy has been successful for Demand Media, a company that pays freelance writers and video producers to produce content on topics determined by its algorithms and partner relationships.

As a data researcher formerly responsible for publishing content on corporate blogs and websites, I've always known that data can be a rich source of content ideas. At Hitwise, I looked for blog post ideas by combing through search term lists and site rankings. At Efficient Frontier, I examined incoming search terms to see what keyword combinations were driving people to the site and blog, and expanded on relevant topics in future content. It's no surprise then, that Tim Armstrong, who came from the data-driven Google, is behind AOL's new effort. According to WSJ, the new system

...uses a series of algorithms to predict the types of stories, videos and photos that will be most popular with consumers and marketers.

The predictions, it says, are based on a wide swath of data AOL collects, from the Web searches people make on its site to the sites visited by subscribers to its Internet services.

The system is designed to track breaking news and trends and identify the best times to write about seasonal events, such as Halloween or Monday Night Football.

Based on these recommendations, the company's editorial staff, which totals about 500, will assign articles to a network of free-lancers across the country via a new Web site called Seed.com.

While this can hardly be called journalism, Demand Media's success proves that search-friendly content based on popular topics and written by freelancers generates ad revenue. The new AOL needs a solid strategy for revenue generation, and is betting this will work.

I believe there are three key lessons here for marketers, particularly B2B marketers who depend on content to encourage their prospects to buy an expensive product or service.

1. Know what your audience is looking for. AOL isn't leaving it wholly up to editors to decide what should be written - they are letting the system's algorithms - based on searches and web traffic - help call the shots. Likewise, companies can't always trust executives or product managers to know what prospects will find relevant. There is almost always data that can help determine which topics are relevant to your audience. Your analytics package is a great source of this data: what search terms are people using to get to your site? What search terms do you want them to be using? What content is being viewed the most? Even if you have a 20-page B2B website, this data can help you decide what's working and what needs to be added or pushed off the home page. If you have a bigger site and subscribe to a competitive intelligence service like Experian Hitwise or Compete, check out how users are navigating to your competitor's sites and your industry as a whole. You don't need an algorithm to use data to make more educated decisions about what content to create.
2. Pay attention to the calendar and current events. AOL's system tracks breaking news. So should you - whether it's reading your feeds and newsletters every day, or setting up Google Alerts for your competitors or key industry terms and products. When a topic comes out that's relevant to your company, respond quickly by posting a blog entry or a Twitter update. The calendar is another strategic tool - just as AOL will know when to write about Monday Night Football, you know seasonality of your industry and when your industry conferences take place. Your company might exhibit at financial services or retail conferences that occur every year. Publish content accordingly, and give the leads you get at the conference a reason to go to your website.
3. Hire expert freelancers (or distribute responsibility). Just like Demand Media, AOL plans to use writers who are skilled in covering a specific content areas. They work fast because they already know the topic, and they know the system guidelines. You can have employees throughout your organization blogging on specific topics, and provide them with a basic format to help make writing easier. A look at the Official Google Blog today shows that every single post on the home page has a different author. An employee might write one or two blog posts in his or her whole tenure with the company. Google knows that the best person to write a post is the person who is closest to the topic. It's OK if the marketing team has to do some editing - as long as it doesn't end up sounding like self-serving marketing copy. For deeper content like white papers or research reports, it can often be more efficient to hire outside writers who know your industry and the writing format and just need a download on the product to write an effective paper. They'll turn it around quickly, and it will keep employees that normally build or manage products happy, because they won't have to take time away from their job to write.

While I don't believe data-driven content generation is the saving grace of web content - it lacks qualitative insight that can make a good strategy truly brilliant - data can and should be used to inform content strategy and editorial decisions. If you're armed with deep audience knowledge, prepared for unexpected disruptions in your editorial calendar, and have a rolodex of competent internal or external content creators, you create a rich web site that will engage users and gently encourage them to buy your product or service.

First Post on VentureBeat: Twitter’s stalled growth could spell bad news for Twitter ecosystem

I've started writing for VentureBeat. Here's an excerpt from my first post. Read the full post here.

October numbers are in, and Comscore, Compete, Google, and Quantcast all agree: US traffic to Twitter.com reached a peak in July or August and has begun to decline slowly.

According to Comscore, October 2009 traffic was down 8% from from September 2009, while Compete shows a more modest decline of 2.1%. Still, on a year-over year basis, US Twitter visitor counts are up 1,271% according to Comscore, and 578% according to Compete.

Twitter’s phenomenal growth over the past year can be attributed to factors like media coverage of celebrities on Twitter, Twitter founder Ev Williams’ appearance on Oprah, and Oprah’s joining the service. But its stalled growth and slight decline since September could indicate that interest in the service is limited and has reached its peak.

Nielsen reported in April that 60% of new Twitter users drop off after a month. In response to the objection that many Twitter users access the service solely via third-party applications or mobile phones, Nielsen found that Twitter drop-off rates were the same for applications. “There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defecting ones after a certain point,” wrote David Martin, VP of Primary Research at Nielsen Online. Even though Twitter got a huge influx of new users over the summer, as the charts show, it seems most of these users didn’t stick around through the fall. Is it possible that Twitter doesn’t have the mainstream appeal to “make Twitter essential to everyone’s lives,” as Ev Williams stated in a recent BBC interview?

Of course, traffic to Twitter is not the only indication of its health, as Twitter users so adamantly informed Nielsen last spring. Let’s look at two more factors: search and traffic to third-party Twitter sites.

keep reading...